SEMI Projects Semiconductor Equipment Sales to Hit Record $156 Billion by 2027 as SEMICON China 2026 Draws 180,000 Attendees

By NineScrolls Team · 2026-03-27 · 4 min read · Event

SEMI's Record Equipment Forecast

Global semiconductor equipment sales are on track to shatter records. According to SEMI, the industry trade association, total equipment sales by original equipment manufacturers will reach $133 billion in 2025, grow to $145 billion in 2026, and climb to a record $156 billion in 2027. If realized, 2027 would mark the first time the industry crosses the $150 billion threshold.

The wafer fab equipment (WFE) segment — which includes deposition, etch, lithography, and process control tools — accounts for the bulk of that spending. WFE hit a record $104 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $115.7 billion in 2025 (+11%), then grow 9% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2027 to reach $135.2 billion. Back-end equipment is surging even faster: test equipment sales are forecast to jump 48.1% to $11.2 billion in 2025, while assembly and packaging equipment is set to grow 19.6% to $6.4 billion.

SEMICON China 2026 Wraps in Shanghai

SEMICON China 2026, the world's largest professional semiconductor expo, concluded today at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre after three days (March 25–27). The event drew more than 180,000 attendees and featured 1,500 exhibitors across 5,000 booths spanning over 100,000 square meters. Coverage ranged from chip design and manufacturing to assembly, test, equipment, and materials.

Concurrent with the expo, CSTIC 2026 — one of Asia's most comprehensive semiconductor technology conferences — ran March 22–24 with 10 symposia covering the full spectrum of semiconductor process technology, co-organized by SEMI and IEEE.

China's Fab Capacity Surge to 42% by 2028

Data presented at SEMICON China revealed that China's share of global wafer fabrication capacity for mainstream processes is expected to reach 42% by 2028, up sharply from 32% in 2025. That ten-percentage-point jump in three years reflects aggressive fab buildouts by Chinese chipmakers including SMIC and Hua Hong, heavily concentrated in mature-node production (28 nm and above).

China, Taiwan, and South Korea are projected to remain the top three destinations for semiconductor equipment spending through 2027. China's equipment purchases have already ranked first globally for several consecutive years, driven by domestic capacity expansion under national self-sufficiency policies.

AI as the Structural Growth Engine

AI computing is the dominant force reshaping global semiconductor capacity investment. SEMI's forecast attributes the sustained equipment spending growth primarily to AI-related investments in leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging technologies such as TSMC's CoWoS.

TSMC itself has set a 2026 capex target of $52–56 billion — up nearly 40% from 2025's $40.9 billion — with 70–80% allocated to advanced process technologies. Major equipment suppliers are riding this wave: Lam Research posted $5.34 billion in quarterly revenue (up 22.1% year-over-year), ASML closed 2025 with €32.7 billion in annual revenue and a record €38.8 billion backlog, and KLA hit record quarterly revenue of $3.30 billion.

What This Means for Plasma Processing and Thin Film Deposition

The $156 billion equipment forecast translates directly into massive demand for plasma processing and thin film deposition systems. As the WFE segment grows toward $135 billion, etch and deposition tools represent two of the three largest spending categories within that total (alongside lithography).

Three dynamics are intensifying demand for deposition and etch equipment specifically. First, the transition from 2D to 3D NAND has increased the share of thin film deposition equipment in flash production lines from 18% of capex in the 2D era to 26% in the 3D era, according to Tokyo Electron disclosures. Second, gate-all-around (GAA) transistor architectures at 2 nm and below require more ALD and selective deposition steps per wafer than FinFET predecessors. Third, advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and hybrid bonding demand additional PVD, CVD, and plasma activation process steps that did not exist in conventional packaging flows.

For the equipment supply chain — plasma sources, sputtering targets, vacuum components, gas delivery systems, and process monitoring instruments — the trajectory is clear. Every new fab that comes online, whether in China's mainstream-node buildout or TSMC's leading-edge 2 nm expansion, needs deposition chambers, etch modules, and the consumables and subsystems that keep them running.