SEMI: Global 300mm Fab Equipment Spending to Hit $133 Billion in 2026, $151 Billion in 2027 — AI Triggers Historic Investment Cycle

By NineScrolls Team · 2026-04-06 · 6 min read · Industry

Overview: SEMI's April 2026 Forecast

On April 1, 2026, SEMI published its latest 300mm Fab Outlook, projecting worldwide 300mm fab equipment spending will rise 18% to $133 billion in 2026 and a further 14% to $151 billion in 2027 — the first time the industry has ever crossed the $150 billion mark in a single year. The updated report tracks 404 facilities and production lines globally and incorporates 198 updates and 9 new fab and line projects added since the December 2025 edition.

"AI is resetting the scale of semiconductor manufacturing investment," said Ajit Manocha, President and CEO of SEMI. "With global 300mm fab equipment spending projected to exceed $150 billion in 2027 for the first time, the industry is making historic, sustained commitments to the advanced capacity and resilient supply chains needed to power the AI era."

The forecast extends through 2029, with spending rising to $155 billion in 2028 (+3%) and $172 billion in 2029 (+11%). The longer horizon signals a multiyear capital build, not a one-year spike.

Logic & Micro Leads with $228 Billion Through 2029

The Logic & Micro segment is expected to account for $228 billion in cumulative equipment spending between 2027 and 2029, the largest single segment in the forecast. The primary driver is leading-edge foundry capacity for sub-2nm nodes, where gate-all-around (GAA) transistor architectures require a significantly expanded set of process steps compared to FinFET generations. Advanced node volume production is expected to ramp meaningfully from 2027 onward as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel push below the 2nm threshold.

Edge AI device demand across all nodes also contributes to logic equipment spending, ensuring that mid-range and mature nodes see ongoing investment alongside the bleeding edge.

Memory Rebounds: DRAM Tops $111 Billion, 3D NAND at $62 Billion

The memory segment is projected to rank second in cumulative equipment spending at $175 billion from 2027 to 2029. DRAM leads the memory build with $111 billion, driven overwhelmingly by demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators and data center GPUs. The HBM4 generation in production at SK Hynix and Samsung requires more aggressive through-silicon via (TSV) etch, barrier deposition, and dielectric fill steps than its predecessors, making per-wafer tool intensity higher than standard DRAM.

3D NAND accounts for the remaining $62 billion, with layer counts continuing to climb past 400 and heading toward 600 layers and beyond. Each additional layer pair demands additional deposition and etch cycles, directly multiplying tool-hours and consumables per wafer.

Regional Breakdown: China, Taiwan, Korea, Americas

SEMI's regional data shows that 300mm fab equipment investment will remain broadly distributed across all major semiconductor geographies from 2027 to 2029. China is expected to retain the top position in absolute spending, supported by domestic capacity expansion programs and national semiconductor self-sufficiency initiatives. Estimates from earlier in 2026 put China's annual equipment investment at approximately $39 billion, reflecting sustained central government support even as U.S. export controls restrict access to the most advanced tools.

Taiwan's spending is driven primarily by TSMC's aggressive 2nm and sub-2nm ramp, with Fab 20 in Baoshan and Fab 22 in Kaohsiung running at full capacity already allocated through 2026. Korea's investment is tied closely to the DRAM and HBM memory cycle, with SK Hynix and Samsung both executing multi-year capex programs. The Americas region is accelerating on the back of CHIPS Act incentives, with TSMC's Arizona complex, Samsung's Taylor facility, and Intel's domestic fabs all adding 300mm capacity.

What Is Driving the Surge

The primary catalyst is the AI infrastructure build. AI training workloads have created insatiable demand for HBM and data-center-class logic chips, while AI inference at the edge is pulling demand across virtually every node. According to SEMI, spending patterns across logic, DRAM, and NAND are all simultaneously elevated — a configuration rarely seen in past cycles where memory and logic capex typically alternated.

A secondary driver is regionalization. Governments in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia are subsidizing domestic fab capacity, meaning investment is occurring even in geographies where pure economics would not justify it. This supply-chain-resilience motive adds a floor under equipment spending that was absent in prior downturns. South Korea's equipment spend is projected to grow 27% year-over-year to roughly $29.66 billion in 2026, returning it to second place globally behind China.

What This Means for Plasma Processing and Thin Film Deposition

The SEMI forecast is a direct demand signal for every major category of deposition and etch equipment. In 300mm fabs, etch and deposition systems together represent the largest equipment spend after lithography, accounting for an estimated 40–50% of total tool investment on advanced logic lines. As the total market rises to $133 billion in 2026, the addressable pool for plasma etch, CVD, ALD, and PVD vendors expands proportionally.

The logic surge at sub-2nm nodes is specifically demanding for atomic-level deposition. GAA nanosheet transistors require at least a dozen ALD steps for gate oxide, spacer, inner spacer, and etch-stop layers that were unnecessary in the FinFET era. Each step uses precursor chemistry — metal-organic or halide-based — delivered through precision gas injection systems, with plasma-enhanced ALD (PEALD) increasingly preferred over thermal ALD because it enables lower deposition temperatures and tighter conformality on high-aspect-ratio nanosheets. Equipment suppliers including ASM International, Applied Materials, and Lam Research are all actively competing in PEALD for gate-stack applications.

On the memory side, the $111 billion DRAM build — led by HBM demand — requires deep TSV etch in high-aspect-ratio silicon (>20:1), followed by atomic-layer-deposited barrier layers (typically TaN/Ta or TiN) and CVD tungsten or copper fill. The plasma etch step at the TSV opening is particularly tool-intensive: tight CD uniformity, low damage, and precise depth control are non-negotiable for die-to-die electrical yield. For 3D NAND, every additional layer pair requires one more cycle of LPCVD or PECVD oxide and nitride deposition, plus a corresponding etch back — so the $62 billion NAND capex translates almost linearly into incremental tool-hours for deposition and etch chambers.

For the broader equipment supply chain, the $133 billion 2026 market represents record demand for plasma sources, RF power generators, dielectric and metallic sputtering targets, vacuum pumps, mass flow controllers, and process gases. Consumable replacement cycles also accelerate as fabs run tools at higher utilization. The sustained nature of the SEMI forecast — with spending above $150 billion from 2027 onward — gives equipment makers and their supply chain vendors multi-year visibility, supporting capacity investments in components manufacturing that would otherwise require speculative commitments.