ASML Posts €8.8 Billion Q1 Revenue, Raises 2026 Guidance to €36–40 Billion as AI Chip Demand Outstrips Supply

By NineScrolls Team · 2026-04-16 · 5 min read · Industry

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Q1 2026 Results Beat Expectations Across the Board

ASML reported Q1 2026 total net sales of €8.8 billion, gross margin of 53.0%, and net income of €2.8 billion — translating to basic earnings per share of €7.15. The results exceeded analyst consensus estimates of €8.5 billion in revenue and €2.5 billion in net income. System sales accounted for €6.3 billion, while Installed Base Management — the company's service and upgrade business — contributed €2.5 billion.

The company shipped 79 lithography systems during the quarter: 16 EUV units, 17 ArF immersion systems, 5 ArF dry systems, 30 KrF systems, and 11 i-line systems. The 53% gross margin landed at the high end of ASML's own guidance range, reflecting favorable product mix and continued pricing discipline.

Full-Year Guidance Raised on Surging AI Infrastructure Demand

ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion with gross margins of 51–53%, up from the prior outlook of €34–39 billion. The upward revision reflects strengthening demand across both logic and memory segments. CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that "the semiconductor industry's growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments. Demand for chips is outpacing supply."

For Q2 2026, ASML guided total net sales of €8.4–9.0 billion with gross margins of 51–52% and installed base revenue of approximately €2.5 billion. Management noted that non-EUV demand has also increased relative to prior expectations, signaling broad-based equipment spending acceleration.

EUV Dominates: 16 Systems Shipped, 66% of System Revenue

EUV systems accounted for 66% of net system sales in Q1 — a sharp increase from 48% in Q4 2025. The shift reflects the industry's accelerating transition to advanced nodes for AI logic chips and next-generation high-bandwidth memory. Memory applications represented 51% of system revenue, up from 30% in the prior quarter, while logic accounted for 49%.

ASML's management reported that memory customers are "sold out for 2026" with supply constraints extending beyond that year. Advanced logic customers are simultaneously building capacity across multiple nodes while ramping 2nm production specifically for AI products.

Capacity Roadmap: 60+ EUV Systems in 2026, 80+ Targeted for 2027

ASML plans to ship at least 60 Low NA EUV systems in 2026, with a target of at least 80 in 2027 if demand supports the ramp. The company has also raised throughput specifications on its latest systems: the NXE:3800E now achieves 220–230 wafers per hour, while the NXE:3800F specification has been increased to 260 wafers per hour from 250.

On the High-NA front, ASML demonstrated a 1,000-watt EUV source that is expected to enable Low NA systems to reach 330 wafers per hour by 2031. Customers working with High-NA tools are reporting significant process simplification — reducing three masks to one and compressing 100 process steps to 10 in certain applications. More High-NA systems are expected to ship in 2026 to support customer preparation for high-volume manufacturing insertion.

Geographic Shift: South Korea Surges to 45%, China Drops to 19%

The quarter saw a pronounced geographic revenue shift. South Korea surged to 45% of system revenue, up from 22% in Q4 2025, driven by Samsung and SK hynix memory investments. China revenue dropped to 19%, down from 36% in Q4 2025, reflecting the ongoing impact of export controls and a normalization of the Chinese buying cycle that had inflated prior quarters.

ASML also returned significant capital to shareholders during the quarter, executing €1.1 billion in share buybacks and announcing a 17% increase in the 2025 total dividend to €7.50 per share. The company ended Q1 with €8.4 billion in cash. Looking further ahead, management reiterated its 2030 target of €44–60 billion in annual revenue with gross margins of 56–60%.

What This Means for Plasma Processing and Thin Film Deposition

ASML's raised guidance and surging EUV shipments are a leading indicator for the entire semiconductor equipment supply chain — and particularly for plasma processing and thin film deposition. Every EUV lithography layer printed requires corresponding etch and deposition steps. As ASML ramps from 60+ to 80+ EUV systems annually, downstream demand for plasma etch tools (from Lam Research and Tokyo Electron), PECVD systems, and ALD chambers (from Applied Materials and ASM International) will intensify proportionally.

The memory-to-logic revenue shift is especially significant for deposition equipment makers. Memory applications now accounting for 51% of ASML's system sales points to aggressive HBM and 3D NAND capacity expansion, both of which are among the most deposition-intensive processes in semiconductor manufacturing. HBM stacking requires precision TSV etch and barrier/seed layer deposition, while every additional 3D NAND layer adds etch and deposition cycles. Counterpoint Research projects global WFE spending will grow approximately 11% year-over-year in 2026, with etch, deposition, and process control tools leading the second-half acceleration.

For equipment supply chain participants — plasma source manufacturers, sputtering target suppliers, vacuum component makers, gas delivery system integrators, and process monitoring OEMs — ASML's results confirm that the AI-driven capex cycle has structural momentum extending through at least 2027. The constraint is no longer customer willingness to invest, but the industry's ability to manufacture and install the tools fast enough.

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